The DLP stance on the weakness of this year's Oscar nominees notwithstanding, I have put out some thoughts on who should win among the nominees and who I think will win below. Here is a link to a ballot.
Best picture
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Milk"
"The Reader"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
Slumdog will win, and should win. Despite the backlash (I'm looking at you, Doc), it is still really good, followed closely by Milk and with lots of distance between the other three, which are all prety weak.
Full list after the jump:
Actor
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor"
Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn, "Milk"
Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"
This is between Rourke and Penn, and I will say that Penn will win, but Rourke should. Both are towering performances, and whoever wins will deserve it.
Actress
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
Melissa Leo, "Frozen River"
Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
Hathaway should win, Winslet will win.
Supporting actor
Josh Brolin, "Milk"
Robert Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt"
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
Michael Shannon, "Revolutionary Road"
Ledger will win and should win. Runner-up is Michael Shannon.
Supporting actress
Amy Adams, "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Viola Davis, "Doubt"
Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Marisa Tomei, "The Wrestler"
Davis will win - I think she, Tomei and Cruz are all deserving. Henson's is the worst nomination in several years.
Director
David Fincher, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Ron Howard, "Frost/Nixon"
Gus Van Sant, "Milk"
Stephen Daldry, "The Reader"
Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Boyle will win, Fincher should win. Stop nominating Daldry and Howard, please.
Foreign-language film
"The Baader Meinhof Complex," Germany
"The Class," France
"Departures," Japan
"Revanche," Austria
"Waltz With Bashir," Israel
The Class will win. Haven't seen any of these.
Adapted screenplay
Eric Roth and Robin Swicord, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
John Patrick Shanley, "Doubt"
Peter Morgan, "Frost/Nixon"
David Hare, "The Reader"
Simon Beaufoy, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Slumdog will win, Doubt should win.
Original screenplay
Courtney Hunt, "Frozen River"
Mike Leigh, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Martin McDonagh, "In Bruges"
Dustin Lance Black, "Milk"
Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter, "WALL-E"
Milk will win, Frozen River should.
Animated feature film
"Bolt"
"Kung Fu Panda"
"WALL-E"
WALLE.
Art direction
"Changeling"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"The Duchess"
"Revolutionary Road"
Benjamin Button will, RevRoad should.
Cinematography
"Changeling"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"The Reader,"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
Slumdog will, Button should.
Sound mixing
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"WALL-E"
"Wanted"
Dark Knight
Sound editing
"The Dark Knight"
"Iron Man"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"WALL-E"
"Wanted"
Dark Knight
Original score
Alexandre Desplat, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
James Newton Howard, "Defiance"
Danny Elfman, "Milk"
A.R. Rahman, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Thomas Newman, "WALL-E"
Slumdog
Original song
"Down to Earth" from "WALL-E," Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman
"Jai Ho" from "Slumdog Millionaire," A.R. Rahman and Gulzar
"O Saya" from "Slumdog Millionaire," A.R. Rahman and Maya Arulpragasam
Jai Ho.
Costume design
"Australia"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Duchess"
"Milk"
"Revolutionary Road"
RevRoad.
Documentary feature
"The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)"
"Encounters at the End of the World"
"The Garden"
"Man on Wire"
"Trouble the Water"
Man on Wire will, Encounters should.
Documentary (short subject)
"The Conscience of Nhem En"
"The Final Inch"
"Smile Pinki"
"The Witness -- From the Balcony of Room 306"
Total guess - Final Inch.
Film editing
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Milk"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
Slumdog.
Makeup
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"Hellboy II: The Golden Army"
Button
Animated short film
"La Maison en Petits Cubes"
"Lavatory -- Lovestory"
"Oktapodi"
"Presto"
"This Way Up"
Wow- Oktapodi, just for fun.
Live action short film
"Auf der Strecke (On the Line)"
"Manon on the Asphalt"
"New Boy"
"The Pig"
"Spielzeugland (Toyland)"
The Pig
Visual effects
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"Iron Man"
Button
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Oscar Predictions and Discussion
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1 comment:
I will admit that Button's ending gets worse and worse in retrospect (giving up your responsibilities and starting anew whenever you feel like it). And Ben may have not wanted Daisy to take care of him, but she ended up doing it anyway. In contrast, after the brother is shot, Slumdog was very effective in what it was trying to do. On a side note, Danny Boyle has been very likable on the interview circuit this month. Everyone who saw Slumdog early liked it; most who saw it later thought it was overrated (Priest seemingly more than me, though I've been more vocal). This doesn't bode well for Slumdog's future stature if it can't withstand a little honest scrutiny within one month of its release.
Here's hoping for a few surprises tonight. Melissa Leo, Charlie Kaufman, Rourke, and Aronofsky (accepting for his cinematographer) were great at the Independent Spirit Awards yesterday. Best director went to The Visitor though, making the entire ceremony a joke. (Wrestler took best film, Franco (for Milk) and Cruz took the supporting perfs).
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